Why is the PTI Azadi March a bad idea?

Never … murder a man who is committing suicide. – Napolean Bonaparte

Before I begin my train of thoughts on PTI’s Azadi March, I must clarify that I am a firm believer in the democratic rights to carry out long marches, protests and boycotts. These are basic human rights exercised to remind the rulers that not every step they intend to take is without a contest for there are people, even if lower in number, who don’t necessarily agree to your proclaimed policy making abilities (and are well within their rights when they do so). Every policy is multi-dimensional and all the arguments, be against or in favor, carry weight. Based on multiple factors such as cognitive bias and intellect, some arguments might carry more weight to one person than the other but there are some established set of consequences for any action bearing almost similar outcomes in all environments. Right or wrong, Imran Khan has serious reservations on the way Mian Nawaz Sharif came to power and has been running the affairs since then.

PMLN government has stood firm on their intention not to let their grip loosen on the system at all evident by the bequest of leadership mantle to its next generation. One fear possibly lurking in the back of their minds is regarding the loss of royal family status at least in Punjab (they do not seem to care much about other parts of Pakistan). On the governance side, everything is piecemeal with a complete lack of a strategic vision or an understanding of the challenges that are bound to haunt us in future if no radical steps are taken. Available healthcare facilities are essentially at a very basic level breaking down every now and then due to petty disputes with doctors and paramedics. Education activism revolves around Danish Schools. Attempt to control inflation by setting up small weekly bazars. All these steps are nothing but an admission of the inability to manage a larger and integrated system. The mistakes that PMLN will commit over the course of next four years will be enough to kill any future prospects of re-election.

Similarly PTI has four years of uninterrupted free hand to manage and improve the systems in KPK province. Whether they succeed in repairing the governance fabric in the province remains to be seen but they have shown the intent by introducing structural reforms in healthcare, education, judicial and security infrastructure. It’s only a matter of time that these reforms would have borne fruit and with some effort, the positive growth stories would have gone viral in this age of incredible media coverage. If things go well, the main opposition parties like JUI (F) and ANP are staring at the possibility of substantial damage to their electorate.

On the other hand, the challenge to hold people together for more than a week will only make matters worse as PMLN is known to be a dangerously nervous opponent when thrown a formidable challenge. They might resort to a use of brute force but if they decide to hold their ground and stay put, PTI will be facing a serious credibility crisis. Persisting on the roads with harsh weather conditions in the monsoon season is fraught with problems and PTI workforce is not physically or mentally conditioned enough to withstand the difficult circumstances. There will be some who will stay there however a major part of PTI’s rally will start disappearing in a week or so. This will be an acute international level embarrassment which might set in motion an irreversible process of decline in PTI’s political capital. They will have to resort to the plan ‘A’ in any case which is KPK governance improvement. The sooner they realize this, the better it is.